Holmgren outlines 4 possible scenarios in the near future:
1. Techno-explosion. We will discover some new technology for replacing the growing availability of oil based energy and continue to grow our economies as we have been.
2. Greentech Optimism. We will replace oil based energy and technologies with new alternative energies that will allow us to sustain our current standard of living without growth and enter a kind of economic and cultural stasis.
3. Energy Descent. Abundant energy will continually decrease and we will make adjustments along the way to adapt to this on a local level using permaculture and other solutions.
4. Collapse. Like other civilizations have in the past (Roman, Mayan etc.) the culture will experience a fairly quick shock that will cause major catastrophic cultural and economic change.
He is personally optimistic and believes scenario 3 will unfold. He points out that in nature when you have a system that has an abundant source of energy there is more competition and predatory type of relationships. One species will move in and attempt to dominate the system. In a system that has a low amount of available energy you tend to see more cooperative relationships such as symbiosis and a greater variety of species present that form networks and interconnections.
I personally think that the experience will be different depending on where you are, and it will vacillate between collapse and energy descent.
David Holmgren Retrofitting The Suburbs - Part1
David Holmgren Retrofitting The Suburbs - Part2
David Holmgren Retrofitting The Suburbs - Part3
David Holmgren Retrofitting The Suburbs - Part4
David Holmgren-Retrofitting the Suburbs-Part5