Friday, May 23, 2008

Have we peaked already?

Here are my comments on this recent article peak oil:

Global Peak oil was apparently in May of 2005. We still haven't beat that level of production. It just so happens that Hubbert called it as well. He predicted global production would peak in 2005 quite a few years back. Global peak discovery was in 1964 so there have been some on the inside that have seen this coming for a while.

I find it funny and a little disturbing that they keep people hangin on with projections like this:

"Global production, which the IEA previously reckoned could reach 116 million barrels a day by 2030, might not even make 100 million."

Haha. Check out the chart:

We hit 82.09 million barrels per day in 2005. If I were a betting man, i would say that we have peaked 3 years ago. What they are not telling you is that we are about to the phase of steady decline. Look at the chart. If we go down the other side of the bell curve, it might be quite a steep decline.

Basically, we are going to be going into a stage of undevelopment, the industrial revolution in reverse. As we scale back and start using older technologies in a reverse succession.

I find it funny now that they are promoting the hybrid cars, and there is a surge of interest in green houses and buildings.

Good fucking luck man. This is not going to be a smooth steady decline. The world is going to go into withdrawl. Funny thing is all the yuppies probably think they are covered because they have some money. Haha. It doesn't matter how much money you have in a shortage!

Take a look at the median and mean prediction lines on the chart. It looks as if we may drift slightly down until about 2010 then then decline will accelerate. So given the current state of demand, the price is definitely going to go higher and then it will go off the chart.

Which is why i say we have about until 2010 to reposition, reeducate and relocate. After that, you better have your shotgun ready because it is rabid zombie time.

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